Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Picking sides - Quint Tatro - Tickerville
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While I am not at all sure of the general direction from here, I can tell you for certain that Mr. Market is doing his best job to discourage traders before the next sustained trend. The action is typical of the early minutes of a football or basketball game as either side has the purest intentions and desire to win and control the entire game. Each side begins with enthusiasm and excitement not willing to back down irrespective of what the opponent may do. However as the game continues, the leader slowly emerges and while the lesser of the two may show brief glimpses of greatness, spectators know it's just a matter of time before the superior team dominates and notches the 'W.' Are there dramatic comebacks or game changing moments? Of course there are, but in the market or athletics, this is rare once the trend has been established.
From March through mid January, the game went clearly to the bulls and what we're seeing now may just be another futile attempt at the bears making a short lived run, however as mentioned above, at this point we're not certain. Because of the change in calendar, it feels to me like a new match entirely and each side is once again filled with the vigor and enthusiasm with an almost certain sense of domination.
As traders, it is not our job to determine the winner ahead of time. Yes, there will be those who make this call but those who have been in the business long enough, realize that the smarter play is to wait patiently while the two sides battle it out and a winner starts to emerge. It's at this time when we all can slowly take our seats on one side or the other, and even change into some team gear if that's your style.
It's easy to watch one play, or even a few plays and mentally or emotionally pick a winner, however it is very dangerous and should be avoided if at all possible. The danger in this path is that when the team, or direction is finally determined, many are already bruised, battered and unwilling or unable to participate due to their early jockeying when the match was still fresh.
I have felt myself slowly succumbing to this of late but have taken a step back to remember and realize that the game is still early, and a winner has not yet been chosen. I have time, there will be opportunities, and the most important aspect at this moment is for me to remain fresh and alert, ready to take my seat on whichever side is needed, and change into the appropriate gear when its time.
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